Cars as we currently know them are privately-owned vehicles powered by fossil fuels. Aside from being a convenient form of transportation, they embody our desires and entertain us behind the wheel. All of that is coming to an end. I know, because I have seen the future. Not on a floodlit stage of an international auto show, or the flickering frames of a Steven Spielberg movie, but on the real streets of a present-day city.
Travel broadens one’s perspectives, and so it was when we visited the city-state of Asia Utopia, otherwise known as Singapore. During those four days and three nights, we got a glimpse of how it can be to be carless by choice, in an environment that practically rewards carlessness. Ironically, the visit was during the weekend of the most car-mad event of all—a Formula One Grand Prix.
One of the new bits of technology we witnessed is a public electric-car charging station, one of twenty that have been installed in Singapore, with a total of 63 scheduled to be in operation within the year. (It is one of the first in Asia, and the first in the Asean region.) Charging an electric vehicle is convenient at one’s home, but recharging at work or in a public place raises questions of how to pay for the energy—and if it is even allowed to plug in. Without a recharging network, electric car owners will be worrying about getting stuck away from home with a discharged car. Imagine crossing the Australian Outback just after the sign that reads “NO FUEL FOR NEXT 500 KM”—everyday. The recharging-network project, initiated by the Singapore government, and supplied by German OEM company Bosch, removes the “range anxiety” that is an obstacle to widespread adoption of electric-car ownership.
Such projects will spell the end of the car with an internal combustion engine. Electric vehicles emit no pollutants (apart from the pollution generated by the electric power plant), and are silent and efficient. The compactness of electric components, with motors able to fit within wheel hubs, and batteries fitting under the vehicle’s floor, enable all sorts of interesting and spacious layouts within a tiny vehicle footprint.
Aside from electric drive, another competing propulsion method is the hydrogen fuel cell. Hydrogen fuel cell cars emit only water, and are similarly quiet and fuel-efficient. Going against fuel cells is the need to build a hydrogen refueling and storage network, whereas electric power is already ubiquitous in any major city.
The other major obstacle to electric vehicles is the battery. Compared to liquid fuels, batteries are heavy and slow to recharge. Improvements are on the way, what with all the technological resources being poured into their development. Samsung has announced that batteries for electric cars will be one of its priority areas in the next five years, part of its announced $20 billion budget. The South Korean company has succeeded in areas where it has had no prior experience, such as televisions and mobile phones, so this augurs well for customers for electric batteries. Toyota, Daimler, BMW, and Warren Buffet are all betting their cash, too.
Propulsion method may be one thing, but surely the way we use cars will not change much—we would still want them to be always available to us, parked and waiting for us to hop in and drive. To paraphrase John Lennon:
Imagine no pollution / it’s easy if you try
Imagine no cars in your possession / I wonder if you can
Or would we still need to own cars? In the four days of extensive commuting within Singapore, not once did we wish, silently or to whatever motoring gods could hear us, that we had a car—any car. This was only because Singapore has an efficient public transport system. Extensive subway lines run under most of the city, and whatever is not walkable from subway stations are certainly accessible by bus. With the development of modern cities, we surmise that this would mean the end of the car as individual property
Normally, we support the premise that any beat-up car is better that the most efficient public transport system. But the convenience of having one’s own car—or rented vehicle—is negated by the expense and time needed to look for parking. Walking up to a mall or office on foot, without having to look for parking, felt strangely liberating.
This would not work in all cities. Singapore occupies a compact area, no more than a couple of hours from end to end (by car, of course). In a sprawling area like Los Angeles or Luzon, there is no public transport that could reliably transport one to all possible destinations. Nor would it work in all conditions. I remember that one year ago in Singapore, in a sudden downpour, we got soaked while waiting for a bus. What I would not have given then for a car.
In such situations, we foresee that car ownership may still not be necessary. Cars can be rented as needed—taxis, for example, or leased for a weekend. We are even approaching the era when cars can be picked up and deposited in cities just as they are needed—a communal ownership that offers the convenience of having a car but limits the downsides such as maintenance and insurance. Daimler is experimenting with such a scheme in an area of Berlin, allowing customers to locate an available Smart runabout, pick it up and use it, then park it and leave it for the next user. With modern phones—as well as the cars—able to stay connected to the Internet, guidance for the users
If cars can be rented easily and conveniently, that will put an end to the car as status symbol. At least for most of us. Leased cars can be classified according to need alone—sedan, van, pickup. Badges and performance will mean less and less as everyone knows you don’t really own the car. That will enable you to splurge on more meaningful things, like your kids’ education or an ostrich-skin handbag.
For the wealthy, they will continue to be significant. Think private jet versus commercial airliner—you would want to get the best for your money. In Singapore’s heavily-regulated private car market, where Corollas can cost as much as a Maserati in the U.S., the wealthiest tend to favor the more expensive brands. If you’re going to pay a lot, you might as well get your money’s worth.
When cars are all electric or fuel-cell powered, that will mean the end of the car as entertainment. For the simple reason that you won’t go to see a silent movie, no matter how great it looks. Cars meant for entertainment feature a heart-thumping, Dolby-surround, THX-certified soundtrack in all its glory. A Ferrari’s sound is worth at least half of its asking price. Carving up a race track with nothing but tire squeal for company doesn’t sound appealing at all. A silent Formula One race run with electric cars would have exactly zero spectators.
What about simulated sound effects, you might say? If cars needed to pipe in a digitally-created soundtrack for your entertainment, better to stay at home and use your Playstation (or perhaps Holodeck) to virtually drive a vintage Mustang instead.
Strangely, for someone who loves cars as they currently are—inefficient, polluting, heavy generators of noise, we don’t fine this future all that bleak. That’s because designers and engineers will still find exciting things to do with the automobile. They will come up with beautiful designs, better safety, and mind-blowing (to us) performance. If we then miss the car as it once was, all we would have to do is go down to our garage, crank up the Jaguar E-Type we would have saved from the scrap heap, sit back, and listen to it purr.
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